What did we learn from Carlisle United's defeat to Leyton Orient?

1 LEAD WEIGHT

A season like this one tends to offer some unfriendly stats.

And while numbers do not mean everything, here’s a particularly troubling one to try for size.

Saturday’s game at Orient was Carlisle’s 20th in all competitions so far in 2023/24.

Joe Garner celebrates his goal at Orient - but Carlisle again failed to get in front (Image: Barbara Abbott)

That equates to 1,800 minutes of football.

How long have the Blues actually been ahead in that time?

A measly 94 minutes. Only in five of those games have they held the lead for any period of time, and never longer than 33 minutes.

So, in all the competitive football Paul Simpson’s side have played since promotion, they’ve had the advantage in 5.2 per cent of it.

Small wonder they have largely lost the aura that they carried for much of 2022/23. Either holding or chasing games has become the norm - understandable to a degree after stepping up a level - yet United often appear uncomfortable with the idea of putting their foot down.

Joe Garner’s leveller at Brisbane Road gave them parity for 15 minutes, while Carlisle never looked like kicking on, never looked like leading. Then they buckled too quickly. The road back to more confident, convincing times is not going to be easy.

2 THE ‘FINE MARGINS’ MYTH

It can often be advanced in a team’s defence that they are agonisingly close to turning things around.

It’s “fine margins”, we tell ourselves. Yet Paul Simpson neatly put a line through that imagined mitigation in post-match interviews.

Football, he pointed out, is in fact a game of fine margins, and not getting on the right side of them isn’t the forgivable matter we sometimes think.

A side that too often comes out on the wrong side of 'fine margins' isn't as close as it may think (Image: Barbara Abbott)

It’s rare, against sides at your level, that victories and defeats are massively emphatic, that one side’s superiority is blatant to the point that the other lot are chasing shadows for 90 minutes.

More often it comes down to split seconds, or ‘marginal gains’ in a game situation.

As such, Aaron Drinan beat Corey Whelan to a cross by a margin in terms of time, but that’s what strikers train to do.

Orient, in their better spells were fractionally quicker and smarter than Carlisle. Not by gaping margins, but that doesn’t mean their win and their play wasn’t emphatic.

Lower-league football often sees a rump of players who appear to be divided by very little. Carlisle have been “in” games throughout this season, many agree, losing lots of them marginally.

Yet if you’re losing a lot by a margin, the cumulative effect paints a picture. And it’s less marginal than you can be deceived into thinking.

3 GOOD ENOUGH?

The more Paul Simpson adjusts, readjusts, tries different varieties with little improvement in consistency, the most uncomfortable question pushes further to the surface.

Are Carlisle’s players good enough?

In some cases, yes. But in too many – no, so far.

Sean Maguire's numbers aren't yet good enough - and the same goes for several of his team-mates (Image: Barbara Abbott)

Thirteen goals from 20 games is a paltry return, three wins in that time the same. It is also now four defeats from five in all competitions and that suggests a certain snowball effect of low confidence and performance.

Collectively and individually, Carlisle are not getting enough from the chosen ones. Joe Garner is among the exceptions – he scored impressively on Saturday, and has generally kept his end up in attack of late.

Those around him, though, are offering little in terms of numbers. Sean Maguire’s one goal to date isn’t an acceptable return, Dan Butterworth's impact has only been recent and qualified, while other attackers, such as Terry Ablade, Luke Plange and Ryan Edmondson give you little faith indeed when you see them coming off the bench.

Harsh? Maybe. But only actions can dispute this sort of conclusion.

United have five goals from Jordan Gibson, one of their better players this season, four from Garner, a couple from Owen Moxon, one from Plange and Maguire apiece, and none from anybody else, whether that be other midfielders, wing-backs or central defenders.

Some from those wider ranks are going to have to step up soon, otherwise the verdict is going to be clinical – and that will also come in deed, rather than word.

4 MIDFIELD MOVES

Callum Guy’s cruel injury robs Carlisle of one of their mainstays.

His loss will be keenly felt given that he is one of just four players with a 100 per cent appearance record in the league to date.

From 16 league games, the midfielder has missed just 32 minutes out of a possible 1,440.

Callum Guy's injury robs United of one of their mainstays. Who can step up in his absence? (Image: Barbara Abbott)

Only Sam Lavelle (yet to miss a league minute) and Jack Armer (missed 20 minutes) have been on the pitch more in the bread-and-butter stuff than Guy, with Jon Mellish (38 minutes) the other remaining league ever-present.

This presents Paul Simpson with a real problem given that, until he badly hurt his knee at Brisbane Road, Guy could be relied upon for his robustness, even to the point that he was the only first-team player who started last month’s EFL Trophy game against Nottingham Forest from the previous league game.

Few of Simpson’s options offer much in the way of guarantee. Dylan McGeouch, who gave a tidy substitute performance, has managed just four appearances since making his summer move.

Can an injury-free run for the first time in his Blues career now be banked upon? Alfie McCalmont has two games left in his suspension and is hardly a like-for-like replacement for the defensively-adept Guy in any case.

Taylor Charters, again not a completely straight swap, is not yet fit. Jayden Harris is out on loan at Eastleigh and Carlisle could not recall him for another week (once his initial 28 days have passed) – and even if they did, could they rely on a player who, in his last two outings, has been substituted in the first half and been sent off?

The tactical Plan B of putting Jon Mellish into midfield could be looked at again, particularly with Paul Huntington available to return to defence, although League One’s standards reduce the effect of that option on present evidence.

It did not take Richie Wellens long to neutralise it on Saturday and, while Orient are a good side, there are better teams in the third tier who’ll not be unsettled by the marauding Mellish as sides were in League Two.

In the various areas Simpson wants to act in terms of recruitment, this one in particular looks increasingly glaring. In the meantime, some more lateral tactical thinking may be needed.