Carlisle United must come from behind in their play-off semi-final first leg with Bradford City.
What did we learn from the 1-0 defeat at Valley Parade – and are there any pointers for the Brunton Park second leg?
Let’s take a closer look…
1 AERIAL BATTLES
Carlisle, you have to think, will give themselves the best chance of a second-leg fightback by keeping the ball on the deck more.
When things were aerial, in both directions at Valley Parade, it was Bradford who had the better of a marginal situation.
Paul Simpson went with Joe Garner to add some physicality to Carlisle’s attack but the numbers suggest his impact in certain respects was limited.
United feel this is in part down to the way ref Ross Joyce disregarded the frontman’s appeals for decisions amid his battles with Mark Hughes’ defenders.
All the same – as an aerial platform, Bradford had a broadly better one, given that their big number nine, Andy Cook, won 13 aerial challenges compared to a combined one between Garner and Omari Patrick.
One such victory for Cook led to the opening goal, as he beat Paul Huntington to the ball to nod on for Jamie Walker eventually to go through and score.
By contrast, Romoney Crichlow had a solid night in Bradford’s defence when the ball was aimed north by United.
Carlisle built better things when Patrick, and later Ryan Edmondson, were pressing and testing Bradford in wider positions, and crafted better chances from these routes, from crosses and via the ball-playing of such as Alfie McCalmont, Owen Moxon and sub Taylor Charters.
Unlocking the door, as opposed to battering it down, is surely the way to go at Brunton Park.
2 ATTACK, ATTACK
United have still not nailed the recent matter of starting games on top and have to get back to this when the second leg comes around.
There was much to be pleased with as things went on at Valley Parade. United, over the piece, gave as good as they got and could easily have taken a draw back to Cumbria.
Yet they were still chasing from the 18th minute and did not get on top of Bradford in the period when Walker got the tie’s only goal so far.
It was a third consecutive game when they’ve conceded at least one first half goal and gone behind as a result.
In all those games (Salford, Sutton, Bradford) their response has been decent. But another first-half concession on Saturday and the job could be too tough.
The challenge for Simpson is to absolutely nail his weekend selection and for the players to nail the situation from the whistle - and the main questions appears to concern how Carlisle line up attacking-wise.
There is, you would think, a case for their top scorer (Kristian Dennis) to come back in for a game when they cannot afford another 90 minutes without a goal.
Edmondson, despite missing their best chance at Valley Parade, also lifted their attacking play on Sunday and a central role for him will surely be among the considerations.
There is a balance to be struck between relying on Garner’s nuisance value and gauging whether his impact is now better from the bench.
Patrick, meanwhile, is not pulling games under his spell as he was last spring, even though there are still moments in most matches when you see glimpses of the danger he can cause.
United also have JK Gordon back, no doubt pulling at the leash after suspension. Whichever way the Blues go, potential must turn into delivery - and setting a positive early tone is essential.
3 STRIKING A BALANCE
United’s absentees in various places has set Simpson the far from ideal task of having to come up with uncommon solutions at such a crucial time.
In a perfect world he would not be having to judge which right-sided defender, for instance, can be entrusted with a left-sided role.
He would not be having to determine how the tactical and versatile attributes of Jon Mellish can be replaced, how the bold defensive leadership of Morgan Feeney can be covered...
In this instance Simpson asked Corey Whelan to go on the left of the back three, with Jack Armer moving back to wing-back. Initially it was an area Bradford targeted through the rapid Scott Banks.
As the game wore on, Carlisle coped with these raids better and Whelan, after an early booking, grew in confidence and composure – and might easily have caused some damage at the other end too.
For Joel Senior there was only a second start since March in the cursed position of right wing-back, and this gave United a more fluent attacking presence in the position than that offered by Ben Barclay, who tucked back into the more familiar centre ground.
Senior has been lightly raced in recent weeks and as such was not at full tilt at Bradford, however doggedly and willingly he played.
There is a case for saying that United at maximum strength would have had enough to beat Bradford, with the knife-edge way the game panned out.
That, though, brings to mind the old saying about aunties, uncles and gonads. This is what United have, and if they cover their obvious holes and reach Wembley it will be a tribute to their squad and Simpson’s problem-solving.
4 MOXON’S MASTERY
This was not a good night for Carlisle’s hopes of keeping Owen Moxon for a long time.
The midfielder, it’s fair to say, stepped up on the big stage and beneath the glare of the TV spotlight.
With a fairer wind and more deadly finishing, United would have scored at least once from one of Moxon’s set-pieces, which were of consistently dangerous quality all night.
Indeed, they were Carlisle’s best line of attack in the game until their footballing creativity improved in the second half.
As Sky pundit Jamie Mackie was quick to observe, though, there is so much more to Moxon’s game than dead-ball deliveries.
Once more the Denton Holme star impressed in the way he controlled the tempo of Carlisle’s play, how he was the hub for the majority of good things they did – how he applied industry to his skill in the middle of the park too.
Stats from WhoScored.com show Moxon made three ‘key passes’ in the game – the most of any player on either side – while his ratio of tackles and interceptions was good too.
In general the midfielder offered more danger when he got closer to Bradford’s box after the game, in moves such as the late foray which almost saw Kristian Dennis in to equalise.
He will be pivotal to Carlisle’s chances of making it a second leg to remember – whatever the longer-term future holds for a player who is, more obviously than ever, a real Blues star.
5 TIME FOR GIBSON?
It is not too long ago that, when Carlisle needed a front foot start and to maintain some attacking momentum, Jordan Gibson provided part of the answer on the right.
It came against Grimsby Town when Paul Simpson used him in the wing-back role.
When Simpson moved Gibson into a more obviously attacking position midway through the first half, he had a dynamic effect on the game, scoring the second goal in a 2-0 win.
Gibson was back on the bench in the next game and, since then, has only started two of United’s 13 games.
It is clear, then, that Simpson increasingly regards the former Bradford man as a “finisher” rather than a starter.
Yet considering those 13 games have produced three wins, six draws and four defeats, is there a case of looking afresh at Gibson with promotion now entirely on the line?
It is not too long that certain statistics emerged concerning his ability to create good quality chances.
However much store you set by such numbers, it is undeniable that Carlisle need some game-breaking qualities against the Bantams in three days’ time.
Gibson had little time to threaten Bradford after coming on late in the first leg but both they and United know that, when he’s in the mood, he can be a dangerous and elusive customer.
However much of a gamble Simpson feels it may be, so is going down other roads which have not necessarily got goals flowing out of the team.
Invention, however it comes, is required to get Wembley back in the sights of this bright United side.
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