Carlisle United's battle to save their EFL status looks set to go down to the wire - but with a successful ending - according to the calculations of a 'supercomputer'.

Data modelling experts FiveThirtyEight have updated their forecasts after the January transfer window.

And their predictions keep United on track for safety by a margin of four pointns.

They reckon Keith Millen's side will finish third bottom - their current position - on 46 points.

That, they reckon, will put them four points above Oldham Athletic (42), with struggling bottom side Scunthorpe United adrift on 32 points.

The number-crunchers revealed their latest figures on Saturday.

The calculations give teams offensive and defensive ratings which help work out predicted results based on the ratings of opposition, whether a game is home or away, and the strength of a team's market value.

Using Soccer Power Index ratings, they give United a 23 per cent probability of being relegated, compared with Oldham's 48 per cent and Scunthorpe's 94 per cent.

Other strugglers such as Walsall have a lower risk of the drop according to the updated numbers, with the Saddlers on 8 per cent. Hartlepool are rated 9 per cent relegation candidates, with Stevenage 6 per cent and Barrow 5 per cent.

Runwaay leaders Forest Green Rovers are, unsurprisingly, dominant favourites to top the table, with FiveThirtyEight's predictions putting them in first place on 97 points - 18 ahead of Tranmere and 20 above Northampton in the automatic places.

They reckon the play-off spots will be filled by Sutton United, Mansfield Town, Exeter City and Newport County.

FiveThirtyEight say their forecasts are based on a revised version of ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), a rating system originally devised by FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief and leading American statistician Nate Silver in 2009.

The full predicted League Two standings:

1. Forest Green Rovers

2. Tranmere Rovers

3. Northampton Town

4. Sutton United

5. Mansfield Town

6. Exeter City

7. Newport County

8. Swindon Town

9. Port Vale

10. Salford City

11. Bristol Rovers

12. Leyton Orient

13. Crawley Town

14. Harrogate Town

15. Bradford City

16. Rochdale

17. Colchester United

18. Barrow

19. Stevenage

20. Walsall

21. Hartlepool United

22. Carlisle United

23. Oldham Athletic

24. Scunthorpe United

For the latest predicted standings and more details visit FiveThirtyEight HERE