A POLL has suggested Cumbria's political landscape could dramatically change at the next General Election.

Amid a chaotic period for the Conservatives nationally and the ongoing political and economic fallout from Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's 'mini-budget' last week, voters are turning away from the party, polls indicate.

Cumbria is currently a Tory heartland, with all constituences held by Conservative MPs, apart from Lib Dem Tim Farron MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale.

But new polling data from company Find out Now and Electoral Calculus suggest that Carlisle, Workington, Copeland and Barrow and Furness constituencies would all fall to Labour if a general election were held today.

Copeland and Workington were former Labour strongholds before they were taken by the Conservatives in the latter part of the last decade, and are essential seats for Labour to take back if they are to come close to winning a general election for the first time since 2005.

"I'm sure Carlisle would go back to Labour even before the latest debacle," said former deputy leader of Carlisle City Council, Elsie Martlew.

"I never take anything for granted but I'm working hard to return Labour MPs to the area.

"The Tories have crashed the economy and the housing markets and the buck stops with Liz Truss."

The poll suggests Labour would take 45 per cent of the national vote with the Conservative 17 points behind on 28 per cent, representing a record overall swing of 15 per cent since the last 2019 general election.

If the poll results were repeated at a general election, Labour’s Cumbria gains would help to party to a landslide election win with a large majority of 112.

READ MORE: Cumberland Lib Dem leader brands lack of rural support in budget 'an insult'

Surveys were conducted after new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his tax cutting mini-budget last week, with only 14 per cent of respondents saying they thought the plans were good.

“Our new poll confirms that Liz Truss' government has got off to a dreadful start with the British public,” Electoral Calculus CEO Martin Baxter said.

“The Conservatives won in 2019 partly because Boris Johnson was an electoral asset and Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral liability. That's all changed, and not to the Conservatives' advantage.”

Cabinet members including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Alok Sharma and Penny Mordaunt would all lose their seats along with former Conservative leaders Boris Johnson and Iain Duncan-Smith.

A warning shot was given to the Conservatives in May 2022 when the Labour won a healthy majority on the new Cumberland Council.

Conservative Councillor for Stanix, Elizabeth Mallinson was still upbeat about the party's chances. 

"It's all still to play for before the next election," she said.

"There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then and the Carlisle Tories have done a lot of hard work and that will come into play at the general election."

There may still be hope for the Conservatives that they can hold onto their Cumbrian seats according to Marin Baxter.

“One glimmer of hope for the Conservatives” said Baxter, “is that Ed Miliband enjoyed a similar large poll lead and predicted majority back in 2013 without managing to win the subsequent general election.”

The next general election is likely to be held in early May 2024.

READ MORE: Ambitions Cumberland Council will have 'no wrong door' for support