CORONAVIRUS could kill hundreds of people in Carlisle if the government does not change its strategy for the epidemic and there is a rapid surge in the number of cases, says an academic from the city.

Dr John Campbell, 62, whose Youtube videos on the issue are attracting hundreds of thousands of views, has highlighted the mismatch between the government's current strategy for dealing with the covid-19 pandemic and the guidance from the World Health Organisation.

The key strategy to reduce deaths is to slow the spread of the virus, he said.

World Health Organisation officials are therefore urging governments to take a comprehensive approach which includes testing those potentially affected, quarantining those who have it, tracing contacts, and imposing strict 'social distancing' measures to prevent person-to-person transmission.

Yet on the advice of his senior scientific advisors, Boris Johnson has so far resisted such radical measures.

Dr Campbell said: "There'll be more and more cases until 50 per cent, 60 per cent, and up to 80 per cent of the population is exposed to this. How quickly that happens depends on us but we need to slow that increase. The World Health Organisation says you can't fight an enemy you can't see.

"We can't see this virus; so the only thing we can do is track it is by testing. What's happened is that the government has a grave shortage of testing kits.

"If you take 100 people who get the virus, 80 per cent will get it mildly; 12 per cent may well get to the point where they need medical support; and five per cent are going to to be critical.

"So absolutely the only defence we have is to slow down the spread of this virus by reducing transmission."

Dr Campbell said that he was concerned by the government's current coronavirus strategy and can see no clear rationale for it.

Of the five percent of patients who will be critically ill, Dr Campbell said: "We can save nearly all of them if we have the facilities and reduce the mortality rate to perhaps 0.5 per cent. Without those facilities, the fatality rate could be as high as it is in Italy - currently just over six per cent.

"We're talking about hundreds of people in Carlisle who could potentially die if we get a lot of people sick at the same time.

"If we carry on with our current strategy, it's likely the number of cases will increase exponentially and we'll reach a peak in the early summer in the number of cases; and that means there will be a lot of critically and seriously ill people at the same time who are not all going to be able to get treated."

Dr Campbell added: "Once we've reached that peak, immunity will develop and cases will drop off quite sharply, leaving a lot of people who've not made it: a lot of older people, vulnerable people, and a certain number of younger people."

The government's strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and the NHS by "contain, delay, research and mitigate."

* John Campbell is a qualified nurse, with a PhD (focused on teaching bioscience in nurse educaiton) and experience of working in A&E. His LinkedIn profile reads as follows: "Nurse currently working in A and E with a demonstrated history in Nurse Education. Skilled in pratical Nursing, Healthcare, Nursing Research, and Health and Educational research. Strong healthcare services professional with two higher degrees and several teaching qualifications. Research record focused in teaching bioscience in national and international nurse education." He university teaching career has spanned more than 27 years.