Counting down to Carlisle United's nailbiting final day in the play-off race

WHY HAS IT ALL COME DOWN TO THE FINAL DAY?

Because this is Carlisle United, and it is the law. Next.

THE PERMUTATIONS

It will either be very simple, or incredibly complicated and nailbiting. Certainly until the final whistle it will surely be much more of the latter.

The most straightforward outcome is that a Carlisle win at Exeter will guarantee them a play-off place. No ifs or buts.

It will also ensure a sixth-placed finish. It will also ensure that they will face Exeter again in the play-offs.

A Blues victory would take them level with the Grecians on points, but Paul Tisdale's men have a vastly superior goal difference and so in this scenario would finish fifth.

That means Carlisle would be at home in the play-off semi-final first leg on Sunday, May 14 at 6.30pm.

The second leg would take the Cumbrians back to St James' Park on Thursday, May 18 at 7.45pm. The Wembley final is then on Sunday, May 28 at 3pm.

Sorted, then. Except it isn't - for the race for sixth and seventh positions is still wide open with just 90 minutes to go.

A Carlisle draw or defeat on Saturday would put their prospects in serious peril, given that just three points separate seven teams who still have a chance of joining Luton and Exeter in the play-offs.

Blackpool currently sit seventh, a point behind United, while if two of Pool, Stevenage, Cambridge, Colchester, Wycombe or Mansfield go either level on points or better than the Blues by full-time, it will be curtains for Keith Curle's side, given their inferior GD.

A draw for Carlisle would at least take them out of Mansfield's reach. But wins for any of the other chasers would still be enough to overhaul United.

If the Blues fail to win but still somehow manage to cling on, and finish seventh, it could be Luton in the play-offs, provided Nathan Jones' men aren't overtaken by Exeter in fourth. The Hatters are three points ahead of the Grecians, and five better off in goal difference.

Got all that?

So, in conclusion, while it might not technically be win or bust, the race is so congested that three points in Devon could be the only way for United to avoid heartbreak. A traditionally mad afternoon awaits.

HOW DOES THEIR FORM COMPARE?

United's form in 2017 is hardly formidable, although they are now unbeaten in four, and with Saturday's much-needed win against Newport fresh in the memory. Overall, a win on Saturday would see their best points return in a season since 2007/8.

Jabo Ibehre is in deadly goalscoring nick, with five in five. Another at Exeter would equal a club record for scoring in consecutive games.

Nicky Adams has also returned to fitness, and maximum influence, in the nick of time, while the Blues appear to have banished their scoring difficulties of late February and March. Although the Cumbrians have only won two in 13, Exeter will expect Keith Curle's side to be fired up and ready this weekend.

The Grecians, though, are a very dangerous animal themselves, having put together the most impressive resurgence of any side in League Two, arguably the entire EFL.

Paul Tisdale's team were bottom of the pile in November. Yet since losing 3-2 at Brunton Park on November 19, their turnaround has been dramatic.

From that day, Exeter went 12 games unbeaten, winning 10. They have lost five games since February, but have still reeled off enough victories to secure a play-off place.

It has been an admirable journey under the long-serving Tisdale, whose position was being questioned by fans in the autumn. They also come into this game in good nick, having won their last two, including a 3-1 at Doncaster's Keepmoat Stadium last time out.

A typically fluent Tisdale side, they boast the precocious Ollie Watkins, the EFL's young player of the season, along with the experienced Reuben Reid and others like David Wheeler, Troy Brown and Ryan Harley who have the quality to influence any League Two game.

In terms of the others in the race, Stevenage's surge into contention has stalled, with no wins in five. Shaun Derry's dark horses at Cambridge have got themselves within range after four wins from six.

Colchester are unbeaten in five - their belated, controversial win at Leyton Orient included - while Wycombe have lost just one in six. Mansfield, the outsiders, were inconsistent in April, but on balance better on their travels, as they are this Saturday.

Blackpool, meanwhile, enjoyed a nine-game unbeaten run between February and March, but have since won two of their last six.

WHAT ABOUT CARLISLE'S RECORD AT EXETER?

This may be the section to gloss over. Records are there to be broken, and all that.

Ok, the cold facts. Carlisle have won once in their last 17 visits to Exeter's ground. Otherwise - six draws and 10 defeats.

The solitary victory in that run was the sort of melodramatic contest some may be anticipating this weekend. In January 2010 United took a two-goal lead, squandered it, and then won it at the very end with a goal from an unlikely source.

Richard Offiong's winner in that 3-2 victory proved his only Carlisle goal. Last season, meanwhile, they showed fighting spirit to earn a late 2-2 draw through loanee Hallam Hope. So at least they have some form for playing to the end at St James' Park.

Their overall record at the stadium since 1958 is: won 4, drawn 8, lost 14.

HOW ARE THE OTHER KEY GAMES SHAPING UP?

Although there is something riding on most games in League Two this weekend, only one pits two of the chasing pack in direct opposition.

Wycombe's home clash with Cambridge has the potential to launch one of those sides into firm contention. If that game produces a loser, their chances will be over. A draw will rule both out.

Of the others, Blackpool have the most enviable fixture: a home game against relegated and crisis-engulfed Leyton Orient. There may be no such thing as a free pass in League Two but that looks the nearest equivalent.

It is also a game between clubs whose fans are united in objection against their respective regimes; the Oystons and Francesco Becchetti. They will join for a protest march in the seaside town before kick-off, while an EFL-backed decision to suspend ticket sales to away fans on caused controversy on Monday.

Stevenage, currently eighth, have home advantage against Accrington, whose own hopes of raiding the top seven ended last weekend.

Colchester also have a winnable-looking home encounter, with 19th-placed Yeovil (only one away win in the league since October).

And while Mansfield's chances may be slim, at least they also have a game against a side with little to play for - Crawley away.

Of all the contenders, then, Carlisle appear to have the toughest fixture of the lot. Would we have it any other way?

WHO DO THE BOOKIES FANCY?

Blackpool are considered nailed-on for a play-off place. Nobody considers a home defeat to Orient a serious possibility and the Tangerines' best price to finish in the top seven is a miserly 2/7.

Carlisle, the other side in possession, are next at 6/4. Stevenage are 13/8, Colchester 11/4, Cambridge 11/2, Wycombe 7/1 and Mansfield a distant 35/1.

If you feel now is the time to back United to go up, meanwhile, several bookies are offering 10/1.

WHY IS EVERYONE KICKING OFF AT 5.30PM?

Because of the great god Sky, who decreed that they would be televising one of the final-day games, and so the chosen kick-off time of 5.30pm must be shared by all sides to avoid giving anyone an advantage.

The broadcaster has opted for Hartlepool's home clash with Doncaster for live coverage. Plenty will be riding on events at Victoria Park, where the Monkey Hangers must win to stand any chance of retaining their EFL status.

Donny, meanwhile, are one of three promoted teams still chasing the title, a point behind leaders Plymouth, with Portsmouth a point further back.

The TV involvement, will, according to United co-owner and League Two's EFL board rep John Nixon, allow "more fans up and down the country" to witness the season finale.

It all means a later than usual finish for Carlisle and their fans after one of their longest trips of the season - a 694-mile round hike.

Not that many will mind too much if the Blues are heading back up the country with their campaign still dramatically alive.