With three months left, we take a closer look at the League Two survival battle, the sides Carlisle need to overcome, and those who might yet get sucked into the mire...

State of play

This is it, then. One minute you feel you are in the middle of the season, with ample time to gain the results to settle things, and the next, judgement time has rushed you from behind.

Carlisle and their rivals do not have as long as they may think to get out of League Two trouble. In United’s case it comes down to 19 games, others have one fewer, and the fact we are on the three-month countdown certainly ought to focus minds across the fourth division.

The predicament is this: Carlisle are four points above the relegation place, with a game in hand on the two lowest sides, Stevenage and Morecambe.

The latter pair traded places on goal difference after Graham Westley’s team enjoyed an eye-opening 4-0 win at Cambridge last weekend.

Was that a case of Stevenage finally waking from their slumber of several months, galvanised at last by the latest emergency version of Westley-ball?

Was Morecambe’s recent victory over Port Vale, which they followed with heavy defeat at Keith Curle’s Northampton, an isolated result in a period of few wins?

Or are both these strugglers in fact stirring, leaving Carlisle – and one or two above them – with the need to check their rear-view mirrors very closely indeed on this critical and, let's be honest, anxious part of the journey?

Who’s in the mix?

Morecambe, Stevenage, Carlisle, Macclesfield: these have looked the sides with most to worry about as January has developed.

United, certainly, need to improve a meagre win record in order to give their supporters some comfort. Two in 15, in all competitions, is not enough to put minds at ease, however many draws they have chiselled out.

If those beneath them are indeed rallying behind a cause – and what exactly is going to befall Macclesfield, ownership and points-deduction-wise, is still to be determined – it is important Carlisle do the same, while it may also be wise, if also optimistic, to look above them and consider one or two others in a deceptively open scramble.

There have been enough cases of a team diving towards relegation from a relatively safe position to know it can happen again, and there are certainly a few sides north of United who might be fearing this right now.

Not for nothing have all members of the bottom eight changed managers this season and, with those trying to get out of the lowest positions, there may be signs of blood in the water at, for instance, Leyton Orient, who have one win since mid-October; Mansfield, one win in 13 in all competitions (including a dismal home record); and Grimsby, two wins in 19, although they are perhaps newly energised by the recent appointment of Ian Holloway and have also lost just one in six.

Cambridge are nine points above trouble right now but have lost their last four games, and six of their last seven, and there is no saying what a 4-0 reverse to the lowest team in the land can do for your state of well-being. Oldham, meanwhile, are winless in six.

There is enough there, then, for Carlisle to chase. But – again – their own record needs reviving in order to achieve this.

Key games

The most pessimistic United supporters right now cannot help but be drawn to the final game on the fixture list, and the thought of a survival shoot-out at Brunton Park with Westley’s Stevenage is too disturbing to contemplate for long.

If the Blues are faced with that, it would be a bleak scenario indeed. Ideally Chris Beech and a side aided by more January signings will have dealt with the matter before then.

For that to happen, positive results will surely need to come against some of their direct rivals, given that United have not been particularly successful against sides higher up the table.

Mansfield away, on Saturday week, is one early opportunity to claw back an opponent who, given their spending in recent times, cannot have imagined they would be in any sort of dogfight this campaign.

That trip pops up amid a period of tougher-looking fixtures versus higher fliers. Crunch games then reappear with the visit of Morecambe and a trip to Cambridge on successive weekends (February 22 and 29) and, not long after that, a four-game spell that includes possibly defining games against Grimsby, Orient and Macclesfield.

If things are not looking more comfortable by then, it will be grimly concluded that, yes, we are going to the wire, joy of joys.

If that does occur, Carlisle’s penultimate game does not look particularly friendly – a long trip to second-placed Exeter – and then their latest reunion with old foe Westley.

What the bookies think

There are few surprises at this stage of a campaign when it comes to pinpointing the likeliest to sink. In the opinion of the EFL’s title sponsor, SkyBet, it is Morecambe who will take the low road back to the National League after 13 years in the EFL.

The Shrimps are 2/5 for the drop, shorter odds than Stevenage (5/6) despite those clubs being locked together on 22 points.

Macclesfield, at the time of writing, are 5/2 and Carlisle next at 4/1, a list which reflects league standings (the Blues and the Silkmen also have a game on hand on the four clubs around them). Orient and Oldham are next shortest.

This weekend United face a good example of what they must wish they could have done; Walsall, now 12th after a lowly start, just two defeats in 11 on their steady rise up the table.

One of those losses came to Carlisle, it should be said, and it is an understatement to say that a repeat of December 29’s outcome would be welcome indeed this Saturday.

United need to discover a number of things as this game, and the other battles, approach. A goal touch at home – they are scoreless in four Brunton Park league games – for one thing, and an improvement generally on the equal second-worst goal tally in League Two.

Those improvements must be prompted by the changes Beech has made so far, and any more to come. If the likes of Nick Anderton and Joshua Kayode make the Blues better, results-wise, then at least another summer rebuild can be done from a fourth tier Two base.

Everybody else in the scramble is attempting the same, though, with Morecambe very active with dealings so far this month and Stevenage also picking up some significant extra hired help.

No favours are given in this sort of situation, and it is those with the clearest eye, and best judgement, who will avoid the nightmare conclusion on April 25. Pray, let United do so.