If ever there was a campaign to defy predictions and patterns it is this one at Carlisle United: a season more easily broken into chunks than observed in a straight and obvious line.

Even now, with more than a quarter of it still to go, we can be sure that 2018/19 will be remembered for its volatility where the Cumbrians’ form is concerned.

That in itself makes predicting the next two-and-a-bit months extremely difficult. This is plainly a new United team as of the end of January, with several key influences gone and different ones hired.

It was significant surgery rather than minor tweaking, and the short-term hope is that Steven Pressley – another 2019 arrival – can find a positive blend from all the recent change.

One thing clear is that United cannot afford to wait too long for their next burst of better form. Eight wins from nine has been followed by no wins in three. It is the sort of dip most teams face, especially one in transition, and it would have been foolish to expect the Blues to power their way to the line without any check to their early winter results.

Still, with 13 games remaining, each chance taken represents a big step forward in the race; every opportunity missed another knock to their chances.

It is the knowing what to expect that is far from easy, given the peaks and troughs already experienced on a journey to the encouraging (overall) current position of seventh.

At home, there has been little middle ground. United began the season tidily enough at Brunton Park but then disappeared off a cliff, losing five on the spin without so much as a goal, a record barren run which feels ever more bizarre when considering what followed.

From mid-December, they erupted back into life, scoring 17 goals in five consecutive home wins, a rumble only halted recently by the draw with Exeter and the defeat to MK Dons.

Whether the latter two games will herald a return to harder times at home, who can say? When seeking answers it is probably better to focus on how the new team knits together rather than what the form charts say; how Pressley and his staff involve the likes of Stefan Scougall, Callum O’Hare, Nathan Thomas and Mark Cullen in a midfield and attack which has, of course, lost Ashley Nadesan, Jerry Yates and Jack Sowerby (and, temporarily, Jamie Devitt) in the recent past.

If we do dwell on the numbers, though, we may be encouraged by the fact United have not lost back-to-back league games outside Cumbria this season, or since last February in fact: something worth knowing given that they have successive trips on the agenda now, having been beaten at Crewe last Tuesday.

Colchester and Newport are Carlisle’s next hosts in a campaign where, overall, their away record remains a fraction better than their home form. Only a small fraction, mind you. They have taken the exact same number of points on the road as at Brunton Park so far (26), but have played a game fewer on their travels.

If United’s current points averages at home and away play out for the rest of the season, it will take them to 72 points. That would have been good news in eight of the last 10 League Two seasons, since it would have secured a place in the play-offs. Only last season and in 2016/17 would it have left a team shy of the top seven places.

Another trend which was certainly relevant last term was the one that showed United’s varying efforts against teams in the upper and lower reaches of the fourth tier.

It was unquestionably a drawback to their efforts under Keith Curle in 2017/18 that the Blues were short of points against sides in the top half. They were much more merciless against the strugglers, but a better return against the contenders would have seen them finish higher than 10th and spending more time realistically in the race.

Those patterns were obvious from the corresponding period last year, when United's inconsistency seemed to have them set for mid-table and duly took them there.

This season the difference is not so dramatic, even though it would still help if Carlisle could punch their weight, and above, during the run-in now. Against top-half teams so far this term they average 1.13 points per game, compared with a heartier 1.94 against the bottom half.

Considering their 13-game remainder includes seven opponents from the top half and six from the bottom, these averages would put another 20 points onto their total, and – again – a finishing tally of 72, meaning fans could realistically expect their season to go into extra-time.

Again, though: how do you set great store by this when United are a different proposition not just on the pitch but off it, in this second half of the campaign, bearing in mind the manager hired to set their course (John Sheridan) also resigned midway through it, leading to change at the top with Pressley?

It is indeed then a season of segments, while the run-in itself sets a predictably diverse range of challenges. After these next two away trips United will surely see their following two home games against Swindon (14th) and Notts County (bottom) as opportunities.

After that it is a trip to Forest Green, a real six-pointer in mid-March. Then it is Cambridge and Tranmere from the lower and middle reaches respectively. On paper at least, the difficulty level then goes up again versus Bury, Stevenage and Lincoln: two automatic faovurites either side of a play-off possible.

Should they still be well-placed, they may then fancy taking on 12th-placed Grimsby, 17th-placed Crawley and 22nd-placed Yeovil down the home straight.

Will they be galloping or staggering by then? As much as we like to pretend the future can be read, this is a season that defies such vision.

Not looking past the next game can sound like a dressing-room cliché, but when it comes to approaching what’s left of 2018/19 at Brunton Park and beyond, it may be the only sensible thing to do.