Coronavirus is not one crisis, but two.

First and foremost, coronavirus is a health crisis. We are still in the midst of a pandemic that every day is causing deaths, in this country and in others. For hundreds of families in Cumbria who have lost loved ones to Covid-19, the human impact of coronavirus is raw, immediate and terrible.

But there is a second, entirely different way in which coronavirus is a crisis - the threat it poses to the livelihoods of millions.

It will take more time for this brewing economic crisis to have its effects fully felt. Job losses have already happened, but so far, the Government’s furlough scheme has shielded many from this.

But the Chancellor has already declared that he sees the scheme as “not sustainable” - it is costing the Treasury about £8bn per month. At present it is set to last until October.

Whether people have jobs to return to as the furlough scheme winds down depends on how fast the economy can bounce back.

Some sectors may be better placed to weather the economic storm brought by the coronavirus outbreak than others. How well Cumbria fares will depend heavily on how well its two key sectors can cope: manufacturing and the tourist industry.

Both the manufacturing and the tourist industries are in their own ways potentially vulnerable to the long-term impact of coronavirus.

Manufacturing is much more important to Cumbria’s economy than it is to the economy of England as a whole. It accounts for a full 22 per cent of the value of Cumbria’s economy, generating about £2.5bn out of a total of £11.3bn. Across England as a whole, manufacturing generates 10 per cent of the total value of the economy.

Manufacturing has undoubtedly been hit hard during the coronavirus outbreak. The PMI Markit survey, which monitors the health of the manufacturing sector across the UK, recorded in April the largest reduction in output in its 28-year history.

This fall has come despite the fact that 90 per cent of manufacturers in the country have stayed open during the coronavirus outbreak.

The problem is not so much supply, but demand. More than 80 per cent of companies have seen their orders reduce since the outbreak began.

The major worry for the manufacturing sector is that it is not yet clear when that demand will return. Manufacturing is a particularly global industry, with items made in Cumbria often travelling across the world for sale.

However Carlisle's MP, John Stevenson, is optimistic that Cumbria will find opportunities presented to it as a result of the crisis.

"I think globalization will slow down as a result of the virus, and I think there will be a re-shoring of manufacturing. Carlisle will have an opportunity to place itself well there," he said.

He added that the specific profile of the manufacturing presence, particularly in Carlisle, has helped to shield it from the worst effects of the initial shock.

"Food and drinks manufacturers, places like McVities and Two Sisters, have continued throughout this.

"Pirelli had paused production, but I think that's a product that will bounce back."

He said one of the greatest threats to the economy in Cumbria longer term now is "a loss of confidence.

"It will be a challenge to build that up. There will be tough times over the next couple of years. There will be a spike in unemployment, sadly. But there are opportunities on the horizon."

Most worrying for Mr Stevenson is the period between when Government support such as the furlough scheme winds down, and the time when the county's most vulnerable businesses find themselves once again trading as normal.

"The cash flow will not have returned to normal, but expenses will start to rise," he said.

"What we've got to hope is that the lag period is as short as it possibly can be, and we do bounce back as quickly as possible.

"I think the Government has realised that's a risk, and that's why they are going to introduce a degree of flexibility into the furlough scheme, so it's not just a cliff edge."

This gap is what causes Cumbria Tourism's managing director, Gill Haigh, particular concern.

"Essentially the tourism sector makes its money in the summer months," she said.

Mrs Haigh said that for Cumbria's tourism industry, the lockdown period was like an extreme sort of winter - which coupled with winter 2019 and winter 2020, means the sector will experience "three winters" in a row.

"We've come out of winter, we'll be going back into winter, we've had a winter in between," she said.

As such, she has called on the Government to provide specific support for Cumbria's tourism industry.

"We desperately need that long-term financial support to help us through this three winter fallow period, to get us to the spring, where all things being equal we can get back on our feet.

"If we don't then we're going to see unemployment rise.

"We've got to have a long-term support package for Cumbria's tourism industry. There isn't a way around that."

The argument that Cumbria's tourist industry is in need of, and is worthy of specific, targeted support rests on a number of points.

First is the heavily seasonal nature of the industry. Cumbria Tourism has been working hard in recent years to promote the county as a year-round destination, but the fact remains that the sector's most profitable period is the summer months.

Second is the uncertainty over when tourism itself will return with the full force to which the county is accustomed. While there are those such as Mr Stevenson who predicts a "fair bit of bounce back" very quickly following the end of the lockdown, the scale and timing of this return to normality is far from clear.

Third is the sheer scale of just how important the tourist sector is to Cumbria's economy.

Just under 37,000 people’s full time jobs rely on the county’s tourist sector. Add in part time and other work, and that figure climbs to a total of nearly 65,000 jobs.

This is more than a quarter of the total workforce, which means that the tourism industry is one of, if not the most significant sector in Cumbria for providing people with jobs.

The county’s tourism industry is worth £3bn, making it more significant than manufacturing in terms of total value, and represents a quarter of the total value of Cumbria’s economy.

That revenue has already taken a frightening hit since the pandemic began.

By the end of May, Cumbria’s visitor economy will have lost £1.45bn as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

This is a huge sum, and as the disruption caused by coronavirus continues, this sum will grow.

“This situation is not going to change in the short term,” Mrs Haigh warned.

"The furlough scheme will be extended until October, but we don't know what contributions will be needed from businesses.

"If you're making nothing, if you're running at a loss, how can you make a contribution?"