It USED to be a lot simpler.

Elections boiled down to a choice between two main parties, two potential prime ministers, swingometers in which blue dots turn red or red dots turn blue.

The election on December 12 could be less straightforward.

Support for small parties has risen..New parties have emerged. More tactical voting is expected

What will it mean for Cumbria? Carlisle, Copeland and Westmorland and Lonsdale are marginal seats. The expulsion of Rory Stewart has damaged Penrith Conservatives. The Brexit Party are mounting a challenge in Workington.

Will we see some surprises?

Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, agrees that Brexit will have an inevitable impact this time – though it might not be enough to change the landscape here.

For example, he doesn’t expect the Brexit Party to win any MPs, but suspects its presence in seats like Workington could help Labour.

He explains: “The Labour Party of today is not like Labour of 30 years ago. It is increasingly seen as the party of the young, socially liberal remainers of the big cities.”

Labour surprised everyone by winning Tory strongholds of Canterbury and Kensington and Chelsea last time. “They are ethnically diverse, young, socially liberal and stuffed with university graduates.”

So pro-Brexit “Workington Man” might be unwilling to vote Labour. But it doesn’t mean he’ll vote Conservative.

“Workington is the kind of seat where the Conservatives are hoping to gain ground.

“The big question is whether voters there will overcome their historic antipathy to voting Conservative.

“They could be attracted by what the Conservatives are offering on Brexit. But they could be suspicious of what else a Conservative government might mean. They may not trust them on economic grounds or on reputational grounds.”

And the Brexit Party offers such voters somewhere else to go. “The Brexit Party could hurt the Conservatives and help Labour.”

The Conservatives’ Brexit stance has lost them support in some quarters. Moderate pro-remain Tory voters are moving to the Liberal Democrats, and Prof Ford believes that if we see an increase in Lib Dem support, much of it will come from disaffected former Tories.

But he doesn’t expect it to affect Penrith and the Border. “It’s not a particularly strong remain area.

“The Lib Dems might come a stronger second. If they made it marginal it would be a very, very good night for them.”

It is often noticed that smaller parties fare better in local and European elections than in general ones.

It’s because most Westminster seats are two-horse races.

Tactical voters may not vote for their favourite party, but for whoever is likely to defeat the party they dislike most.

There are three seats in Cumbria where this could be at play. Carlisle and Copeland are held by Conservatives with slender majorities over Labour.

In Westmorland and Lonsdale the Lib Dems are just ahead of the Conservatives. Could tactical voting unseat any MPs?

“It may squish down the Conservative majorities. But if Labour were to win Carlisle or Copeland it would have to be a very good night for them.”

Opinion polls show a clear lead for the Conservatives at the moment, and he predicts: “Unless there’s a big polling error – and we’ve had those before – the Conservatives could have an overall majority.

“But if their lead drops to six points then we could be looking at a hung parliament.”

And in three weeks anything could happen. Harold Wilson famously said: “A week is a long time in politics.”

Prof Ford adds: “Three weeks is a very long time.”

Rob Johnston, chief executive of Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, agrees that this election is going to be different. One major change is that the parties are further apart than they have looked for some time.

“For most of the last 30 years there were really only differences of emphasis between the main parties. They all believed in the market economy and sound public finances. Now they are no longer on the same page.”

He explains: “If the Conservatives win, we will leave the EU in January and in all likelihood move towards a loose Canada-style free trade agreement.

“If Labour wins the outcome of Brexit is unclear but there will be seismic shocks for the economy with more public spending, higher taxes for business and a rapid expansion of the public sector.

“The Conservatives would also raise public spending substantially. In fiscal terms the Lib Dems are now the most cautious of the three main parties. These are huge changes that would have been unthinkable five years ago.”

The Chamber doesn’t back any party, but this week it published a “Manifesto for Business”, setting out their wishes on Brexit, skills, infrastructure, international trade, investment and costs.

“The key point we make is this: no party can deliver on its promises unless the economy is functioning effectively.

“Profitable and successful businesses create jobs and provide tax revenues that pay for the NHS, schools and so on.

“At the moment businesses are delaying investment and hiring decisions because of rising costs and political uncertainty. Many businesspeople have lost trust in the ability of politicians to resolve challenges and many have a real sense that they are not being heard.”

CARLISLE

n Julia Aglionby: Liberal Democrats

n Ruth Alcroft: Labour

n Fiona Mills: Ukip

n John Stevenson: Conservative

PENRITH AND THE BORDER

n Jonathan Davies: Putting Cumbria First

n Neil Hudson: Conservative

Ali Ross: Green

n Matthew Severn: Liberal Democrats

n Sarah Williams: Labour

COPELAND

n Trudy Harrison: Conservative

n Jack Lenox: Green

n Tony Lywood: Labour

n John Studholme: Liberal Democrats

WORKINGTON

n Nicky Cockburn: Independent

n Sue Hayman: Labour

n Neil Hughes: Liberal Democrats

n Roy Ivinson: Independent

n Mark Jenkinson: Conservative

n Jill Perry: Green

n David Walker: Brexit Party

WESTMORLAND AND LONSDALE

n James Airey: Conservative

n Phillip Black: Labour

n Steven Bolton: Brexit Party

n Tim Farron: Liberal Democrats

BARROW

n Christ Altree: Labour Party

n Loraine Birchall: Liberal Democrats

n Simon Fell: Conservative Party

n Chris Loynes: Green Party

n Ged McGrath: Brexit Party

DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE AND TWEEDALE

n Amanda Burgauer: Scottish National Party

n Nick Chisholm: Labour Party

n John Ferry: Liberal Democrats

n David Mundell: Conservative Party

HEXHAM

n Penny Grennan: Labour Party

n Stephen Howse: Liberal Democrats

n Nick Morphet: Green Party

n Guy Opperman: Conservative Party