POLITICAL pundits have predicted a two-horse race in Workington in the General Election - highlighting the prospect of an upset at the polls.

Survation has carried out a survey among 506 residents in the Workington constituency and asked who they would vote for in the forthcoming general election.

The result predicted a win for Tory candidate Mark Jenkinson, expected to gain 45 per cent of the votes.

Current MP Sue Hayman is expected to lose out on her seat with 34 per cnt of voters backing her.

But of the 506 people interviewed, only 307 said they were certain to vote and 50 people said they would not go to the polling station for the election on December 12.

Of the respondents, around 100 people said they were undecided which candidate to vote for.

Workington has only ever had one non-Labour MP.

It was Conservative Richard Page, who held the seat for three years following a by-election in 1976.

Mrs Hayman has been MP for Workington since 2015.

With Mrs Hayman and Mr Jenkinson, there are further four known candidates for the seat: Jill Perry for the Green Party, Philip Walling for the Brexit Party, Neil Hughes for the Lib Dems and Nicky Cockburn as an independent.

Survation has predicted 13 per cent of votes will go to the Brexit Party candidate, five per cent to the Lib Dem and two per cent to Jill Perry. A further two per cent said they would vote for “another party”.

Labour’s Mrs Hayman said the outcome of the election was far from certain.

She said: “I think the outcome of this election is far from certain, and every vote counts.

“The only poll that matters is the general election itself on December 12, when local people get the chance to vote for their hardworking Labour MP or for more austerity from the Conservatives.

“Opinion polls provide snapshots, not predictions - and polling for individual constituencies in the 2015 and 2017 general elections proved to be wildly inaccurate.

“Over the next five weeks, I’ll be out and about with my campaign team across Workington constituency talking to thousands of local people about the work I’ve been doing on their behalf since 2015, and Labour’s really exciting programme to rebuild our community.

“I’ll be campaigning for the vote of every single constituent, and the only way to avoid more of the same from this appalling Tory government is to vote for their local Labour MP.”

Mr Jenkinson declined to comment on the result of the poll.

London-based think tank Onward, led by former Theresa May adviser Will Tanner, published a report saying that “Workington man” is the key election target. According to the group, any party wanting to win the next general election should target “Workington man”, described as white, male and a Leave voter.