Published at 14:08, Friday, 08 June 2012

Property prices may have taken a hit in the last few years but are they set to bounce back over the next few? This is the forecast from a national think-tank.

The Centre of Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that house prices in the UK are likely to start rising again next year. It believes that in 2013 they will see a rise of 1.9 per cent – and that this will be followed by another rise, of 2.4 per cent, in 2014.

The CEBR bases its prediction on two factors. It says historically low interest rates and a relative shortage of houses to buy will both support property values.

But the forecasts aren’t shared by local estate agents. “I don’t think there are any signs of that,” says Steve Hardaker, director with Allan estate agents. “These predictions can be quite untrustworthy.

“If you take the average house price of £200,000 that’s an increase of nearly £2,000. I don’t see how they can predict that accurately.

“No-one knows how 2013 and 2014 are going to pan out but in the foreseeable future there will be no real change.”

Joe Bell, a negotiator with BPK, takes the same view. “Prices are holding firm at the moment – just motoring along. We have had our drop and they are now just about stable.

“Across the board they seem fairly steady and if they do go up we are talking about a tiny percentage.”

He also points out that higher prices may pose problems for first-time buyers but are less problematic for those already on the housing ladder.

“If you are taking a hit on your house you’re selling then the one you are buying will also have taken a hit.”

Mr Bell also stresses that unpredictable factors can have an impact on prices and forecasts of what will happen in a year or two years don’t always take these into account.

“On a nice day, for example, you might get an extra £500 for a property. Even the weather can make a minute difference.”

Confidence is crucial, he adds, and confidence in the economy as a whole will have a knock-on effect on confidence in the property market.

The forthcoming election in Greece will make its presence felt even on our shores.

“What happens in the euro zone is the big issue, for the whole of Europe. That could be a major driver of prices. It will affect the whole system.”

Published by http://www.cumberlandnews.co.uk