Top Tory's poll says Labour on course to take Carlisle
Last updated at 12:25, Monday, 11 March 2013
Labour is on course to win in Carlisle at the next General Election, says a new opinion poll commissioned by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft.
John Stevenson became the city’s first Conservative MP since 1964 when he took the seat in 2010.
But he scraped home with a slender majority of 853 over Labour’s Michael Boaden. The new poll says Carlisle is among 93 Tory seats that would fall to Labour if an election were held now.
Overall, Labour would gain 109 seats giving leader Ed Miliband 367 MPs and a Commons majority of 84.
Lord Ashcroft is a former deputy chairman of the Conservatives and has been a major donor to party funds. The millionaire businessman previously published Minority Verdict, a critical analysis of why the Conservatives failed to gain an overall majority in 2010.
Now he has commissioned an opinion poll of 19,000 voters in 213 marginal constituencies, including Carlisle.
This shows an 8.1 per cent swing to Labour since the last General Election.
In northern seats the swing is 10 per cent – more than enough for Labour to win Carlisle and another 13 other target seats in Lancashire, Cheshire, Merseyside, Yorkshire and north Lincolnshire.
Lord Ashcroft unveiled the findings at the Conservative Home ‘Victory 2015’ conference in London on Saturday. Mr Stevenson attended the event and delivered a speech, “winning in the north”, in which he urged the party to be strong supporters of the public sector.
He told the News & Star: “The opinion poll reflects public opinion at this moment in time but we’re not yet at the stage of choosing the next government.
“When people start to analyse the issues and who they want as their MP and Prime Minister, you may see a different view emerging.
“It is still two years to the next General Election and a lot can happen between now and then.”
Lee Sherriff, who will be Mr Stevenson’s Labour opponent, was buoyed by the poll findings. She said: “It’s encouraging that the Conservatives are realising that people aren’t happy with what they’re doing.
“From our point of view we can’t take anything for granted and we have to keep working hard.”
She added: “I’m picking up a positive vibe. I’ve spoken to people who say they voted Conservative or Liberal Democrat last time and they won’t be doing again.”
Bookmaker William Hill has made Westmorland and Lonsdale MP Tim Farron 2/1 favourite to be the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. It is offering odds of 7/4 on Nick Clegg stepping down before 2015.
First published at 11:42, Monday, 11 March 2013
Published by http://www.newsandstar.co.uk
Have your say
Labour should skate it, but wont. Their best person is NOT their PCC because he had the misfortune not to be born a woman.
Labour did NOTHING for anyone (except weapons suppliers and bankers) whilst holding office for 13 years. They used PFI to fund hospital building which have saddled those same hospitals with debts for decades, whilst spending (to date) Â£26 Billion on Afghanistan and Iraq.
They created a welfare state which took Â£5 of every Â£4 which was created through taxation. Having babies is NOT a cottage industry!
The Tories? No good to man nor beast... although JS seems to be a decent man with ethics.
Where is that ONE person that can unite the masses (us) against the elitists (them)?
Where is our Ghandi? Where is our Mandela?
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