By Julian Whittle Political editor

Last updated at 14:14, Monday, 27 July 2009

CUMBRIA will turn Tory at the next General Election if the swing the party enjoyed in the Norwich North by-election is repeated here.

Title
Author
Copyright

Description

The Conservatives have only one MP in the county, Penrith and the Border’s David Maclean.

But the 16.5 per cent swing they achieved in Norwich last Thursday would deliver all six Cumbrian constituencies.

Neville Lishman, the Conservatives’ Carlisle-based north west campaign director, spent three weeks in Norwich where the Tories overturned a Labour majority of 5,459.

He said: “We’re not taking anything for granted but it is a morale-boosting result.

“Norwich North was 163rd on our list of target seats while Carlisle is 93rd.”

Following recent boundary changes, the Conservatives need only a 5.3 per cent swing to win in Carlisle, a seat they last held in 1964.

Mr Lishman added: “What we found during the campaign is that people are sick of Gordon Brown. Also, David Cameron’s handling of the expenses scandal has gone down well with voters.”

Elsewhere in Cumbria, a 6.25 per cent swing would see the Conservatives take Barrow from Labour.

Workington Labour MP Tony Cunningham would lose with a 7.7 per cent swing against him, while an 8.75 per swing would oust his colleague Jamie Reed in Copeland.

A clean sweep of Cumbrian seats could follow if the Tories secure a 0.9 per cent swing from the Liberal Democrats in Westmorland and Lonsdale, a seat they lost in 2005.

But Mr Cunningham, who has represented Workington since 2001, does not believe the swing against Labour seen in Norwich will be repeated at a General Election.

He said: “It’s a by-election. General Elections are very different as analysis shows.

“We lost Workington at a by-election in 1976 but won it back at the General Election in 1979 and Dale Campbell-Savours [the MP] increased his majority at every election since.”

He added: “It’s not about me or Jamie [Reed], it’s about what’s happens to this area if we get a Tory government. The only serious investment in west Cumbria has been under Labour.”

The by-election in Norwich North was triggered by the resignation of sitting Labour MP Dr Ian Gibson.

Conservative Chloe Smith won by 7,348 votes.

At 27, she is the youngest MP in the Commons.

The Labour vote fell by more than half as many supporters stayed at home, perhaps in sympathy with Dr Gibson who had been told he could not stand again following revelations about his expenses.

There were claims that he was made a scapegoat.

Cumbria will have at least three new MPs after the General Election, which must come by next summer.

Labour’s Eric Martlew in Carlisle and John Hutton in Barrow are standing down, as is Conservative Mr Maclean.

JWhittle@cngroup.co.uk

First published at 11:28, Monday, 27 July 2009
Published by http://www.newsandstar.co.uk