The tactics have by no means been pretty, but a new poll from the News & Star suggests that the last two months’ campaigning have further solidified Cumbria’s resolve to leave the EU.

The survey, completed by more than 1,400 of the county’s residents, reveals that the percentage of voters planning to put their cross next to the “Leave” option has risen by one per cent since an identical survey of 1,860 participants was carried out in April.

Back then, 75 per cent of respondents wanted out.

Reacting to the results, Penrith and The Border MP Rory Stewart pointed out that the most important thing is that people know their vote matters.

Despite having himself spoken out for the UK to Remain, he said: “It’s very important to remember that, this is a referendum, so everybody‘s vote is equal. The whole point of this is that people should be free to make up their own minds.


Rory Stewart “It‘s been a very very painful campaign. I haven‘t seen anything in British politics which has brought out such forcefulness. My role as an MP is to try and warn people as far as I can about some of the risks, but if they want to take those risks and leave that’s absolutely their right to do so.

“I’m very keen, in the last 48 hours, that people try to concentrate on what they think is going to be best for the country rather than on the personalities. In the end, the whole reason we’re having the referendum is that it’s up to the British people, it’s not up to people like me.”

Other pro-Remain MPs have, however, remained less reticent. Barrow and Furness MP John Woodcock issued a passionate appeal for voters to rethink their options.

He said: “l am urging Cumbrians not to vote this way on Thursday because a national result like this would plunge the British economy into years of turmoil with jobs and living standards at risk. We are just days from a Leave vote triggering a Black Friday market crash and big firms choosing to take jobs and investment out of the area. Vote Remain on Thursday.”


Tim Farron While urging people to vote whatever their leanings, South Lakeland MP Tim Farron pointed out the diversity and strength of support for staying in the EU.

As well as all of the county’s MPs – representing the UK’s three major political parties – major Cumbrian employers including BAE Systems and GSK have been united in their view that the economy is better off In. The trade unions have said workers’ rights will better protected while the the National Farmers Union have said its members will be better off, Mr Farron added.

He said: “Overall, I think the economic case is compelling – the UK benefits by being part of the largest single market in the world.



A number of schools and nurseries across the county will tomorrow close for the day, as they are used for referendum polling stations.

They are:
North:

Blackford CofE Primary School, Carlisle
Plumpton School, Penrith

West:
Bransty Primary School, Whitehaven
Monkray Junior School, Whitehaven
Cleator Moor Nursery School
Millom Infant School

South:
Chapel Street Infants and Nursery School, Dalton
North Walney Primary, Nursery and Pre-school, Barrow
South Walney Infant and Nursery School, Barrow

All schools affected will re-open as usual on Friday morning.


“More importantly though, this vote is about what sort of country we want to be – outward-looking and open, or inward-looking and isolationist. I want the UK to work with our neighbours and allies to tackle the challenges we cannot defeat alone – issues like climate change, terrorism and cross-border policing. I will be voting ‘Remain’ not just for me, but for my children and grandchildren.”

The Cumbria poll comes as good news for local Leave campaigners, following a weekend when national polls suggested a swing in support back towards a result for Remain.

Last week, a Leave vote had been looking increasingly likely, with three separate polls suggesting a Leave lead of as many as six points. But after a period of suspended campaigning on both sides, following the murder of pro-EU MP, Jo Cox, a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times suggested David Cameron’s camp had clawed back lost ground.

The survey showed a 44 per cent support rating for staying in the EU compared to 43 per cent for leaving. The swing was also reflected in a poll by Survation, which handed the Remain camp a three-point lead.

Local Leave supporters, however, have described themselves as “delighted but unsurprised” at the results of the News & Star poll.

Caldbeck businessman and Ukip member John Stanyer said the figures reflected the success rates his team had been gauging out on the campaign trail. Cumbria Vote Leave has even enjoyed a warm reception even when approaching 6th form and university students, he said, a demographic largely thought to be pro-EU.


John Stanyer Asked what may be underlying the county’s support for Brexit, Mr Stanyer said: “I think we’re a county that is not influenced by the London elites. We’re also a county that has a big proportion of self-employed people and small business owners - the type of people that get a raw deal because of EU regulations, a county that’s relatively wealthy and a county that’s reasonably well-educated. I think it’s a combination of Cumbrian grit, independence and reasonable common sense.”

Mr Stanyer’s confidence reflects that of respondents in the News & Star’s poll, with 70 per cent of participants saying they believe Britain will choose to leave the EU.

Paul White, Vote Leave regional director for the North West, also welcomed the poll results without surprise. Of the 75 constituencies he covers, he imagines around 60 will vote Leave, and said it is likely Cumbria will be one of the strongest results of those.

Mr White said: “It wouldn’t surprise me if Cumbria wasn’t top, to be honest. I think Cumbria typifies everything that is great about Britain, and Cumbria as a county believes in itself. And I think, as a result of that, it believes in how great Britain is and how great Britain can be in the future.”